Based on the plausible rumor of a Copaxone bioequivalence study (#msg-60741332), I think the probability that the FDA will approve MNTA’s Copaxone ANDA in 2011 has increased modestly, and the cumulative probably the FDA will approve the ANDA in subsequent years has increased to a somewhat lesser extent. Below are my current probabilities compared to those I posted in Jan 2010. Feedback welcome.
CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY THAT FDA APPROVES MNTA’s COPAXONE ANDA BY END OF GIVEN YEAR New Old NumbersNumbers 2011 52% 42% 2012 74% 68% 2013 81% 78% 2014 85% 84%
JMHO, FWIW
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”
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