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QQQQ News Employment And Oil....Whipsaw Week...Bull Trend Still In Place.....)

Sunday, March 6, 2011 11:03 AM

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News for 'QQQQ' - (Employment And Oil....Whipsaw Week...Bull Trend Still In Place.....)

http://www.swingtradeonline.com/jackswrap/

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http://online.wsj.com/public/quotes/etf_snapshot.html?symbol=QQQQ

Mar 06, 2011 (AdviceTrade via COMTEX) -- by Jack Steiman,
http://www.SwingTradeOnline.com an AdviceTrade.com publication

Such an interesting week. If you remember last Friday's report, I talked about
whipsaw coming up in a symmetrical triangle. I don't think anyone would argue
that that's exactly what we saw this week. The triangle is alive and kicking.
They are so emotional, especially when over played on either side. Longs
struggle. Shorts struggle. Lots of back and forth that plays on your mind.
Usually causes bad outcomes. You get aggressive in a symmetrical triangle you
pay the price, even though you probably didn't put on a bad trade. It just feels
that way at certain times within it. Again, nothing aggressive. If you play only
a few plays you can more easily deal with what's taking place.

The whipsaw week is caused mostly by the gap down off the top a little over a
week ago. The Doji top, which was last Thursday, I believe, maybe Friday, set
the ceiling, but the market has not fallen hard off this gap down. It has tested
down to the gap just above the 50-day exponential moving average on the Nasdaq,
but held with relative ease. It has tested back up twice to the open gap at 2808
on the Nasdaq, but both times it failed. Quite normal within this emotional
pattern. The bears are failing at the bottom, which is the way it normally is
while the bulls are doing their share by failing at the bottom of the open gap
down. Nice to see everyone doing the right thing.

So the week is over and we are still slightly closer to the top of the range at
2808 than there bottom 2727. The middle. Makes perfect sense since it leaves us
guessing about what's on deck. The week lived up to its billing, and I am afraid
we are about to embark on a repeat performance for next week.

One real good thing about symmetrical triangles is that by the time they have
matured some, the daily oscillators have taken quite the move lower from
overbought conditions that bought on the existence of the triangle in the first
place. If you study the daily index charts across the board it is easy to see
that a lot of good has taken place as we have gone from overbought to nearly,
but not quite, oversold. But bull markets don't always need oversold.

We have had massive reduction in price, but we have had a lot of strong
oscillator unwinding as well, which is bullish bigger picture. If we had price
racing down then that would be a different story. Not the case at this moment in
time. That can always change but what has taken place thus far can only be
looked at as a net positive for equities. Stochastic's have raced down from the
high 90's while rsi's have raced down from the 70 level. You can't say price has
raced down with that so it's good action for the bulls when you look only at the
technical picture.

The title tonight talks about oil and employment. Let's take a look at both of
these important factors in terms of how the market thinks of them at this exact
moment in time. We were all on pins and needles waiting on that employment
report this morning. I know I was as the market was expecting some very decent
news.

The market received the news it was waiting for when the employment rate for
those who are still looking was 8.9%. It doesn't count those who have given up,
unfortunately.

The 192,000 jobs created were generally on target. That news took the headache
of this potential worry and put it aside. The market was vulnerable to bad news
on that front, so the bulls had to be excited about this situation being taken
care of in a positive fashion.

The next worry being oil. This is getting completely out of control and is still
a major issue for this market. We closed at 104+ on oil today. You really have
to wonder when a certain price will take this market out and bring it to its
knees. You'd think we have to be close, although the market is not reacting that
way to be sure. At least not at this moment. However, there has to be a number
where the market says enough is enough, and the economy just can't handle this
any longer.

This is a MUST watch situation on a daily basis. There is real risk to the stock
market with oil this high folks, so you don't want to get overly aggressive on
the long side even though we're still clearly in a bull market. Some exposure,
but not overly aggressive with oil over $104.00.

Some stocks had bad weeks and took on more of a down trend short-term, which is
a change of character. But when you think about it, the market is holding up
well so it's not wide spread. That's good, even if some stocks are suffering
more than they have in quite some time. Every stock has bad times, even when
they're bullish bigger picture. Usually happens to the stocks that have had the
worst earnings reports in the latest quarter. The ones with the best reports
remain quite strong in their patterns, even as the market sells off.

Stocks such as Google Inc. (GOOG) and F5 Networks, Inc. (FFIV) remain in
difficult patterns along with many others from just about every sector. But
again, the total picture is not bad at all. Just understand the pattern we're in
and keep in mind how nasty the swings can be, while at the same time, keep an
eye on the price of oil. Some exposure is fine. Nothing out of hand. Play
appropriately and you'll be fine.

Do something nice for someone because you can every day of your life. Enjoy the
energy of children if you get the chance.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of http://SwingTradeOnline.com (www.swingtradeonline.com).
Former columnist for http://TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in
the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in
October 2007. Sign up for a Free 21-Day Trial to SwingTradeOnline.com!
(https://www.swingtradeonline.com/reg/AT)

By Jack Steiman (www.SwingTradeOnline.com)

http://www.swingtradeonline.com/jackswrap/

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Source: Comtex Wall Street News