Certainly longer term market will keep going down. But it seems dramaticaly oversold here. And sentiment has detiriorated beyond what I ever expected. I was frankly expecting a more or less slow downward grind, and not a collapse like we had.
I know there is absolutely no reason to be long this market for a long time, but how fast will it fall ? Will it crash ?
I remember even during the 2000-2001 decline we had these extreme out of the blue rallies. Just when there is absolutely no reason to buy anything, it all over suddenly takes off and squuezes the living hell out of shorts. Will we have those this time ? Or public is still horrified by memories of those days, and their confidence will just collapse this time ?
I'm trying to find an excuse for a rally here. Lower oil ? Lower interest rates ? Fed will stop rate hikes in the face of market turmoil ? But frankly market feels like this selling isn't going to stop easily. Too much volume. Positions that have been built over the last 3 years are unwinding in days. And they won't just turn around and start buying this all back again.
But everyone is so bearish, and everything seems like the end of the financial world. And in the long run they will all be right, but I don't think this is going to be that easy. I still think like a real bear market we'll have an excruciating grind, that will exhaust both bulls and bears.
I know this is wrong, but sometimes gotta be counterintuitive and buy when everyone is bearish. At least in the short term.
Then again, this may be a crash of the century.
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