Biotech Values

[tinkershaw]

For Byetta/Bydureon specifically, I’ve long thought that reduced dosing frequency was offset or even outweighed by the kind of needle that has to be used to administer Bydureon.

The current needle design is a stop gap measure for AMLN/Lilly. More palatable delivery systems, including the usual pen needle are in the works and should hit the market within the next few years.

And the currently utilized needle is not a "horse needle". I think that deflects from your argument.

I do think 1x a week is a very big benefit. It is a pain in the neck just to have to carry my glasses around with me to travel, to have a contact lense kit with me when I travel. How about to have needles with you everywhere you travel, 1x a day. Certainly beats 2x a day, no question there. But 1x a week is better. Yes, compliance issues from the doctor's perspective can be argued either way.

However, given that one cannot now state that bydureon is superior, and given the overblown adverse event issues with byetta/bydureon, and yes, at least initially, given the larger sized needle (not a horse needle by any means, but larger than diabetics usually need to deal with) I agree that bydureon's market value has rightfully and correctfully fallen. I don't see yesterday's stock collapse as overdone or unjustified. I still see a billion drug with bydureon, but the multi-billion dollar scenarios seem a lot more remote at this point in time for the drug.

Novo won a big won with this failed trial by AMLN/Lilly.

Tinker