Once you start trading with actual money you'll learn.
I'll give you Oil at $69 eventually. After all the Dow was trading at 300 at one time. I'm sure if you called it at 11,000 'long term' back then you would have been called a fruit-cake, but 'long term' it seems to have eventually hit it.
I also see Oil at $69 but your play by play commentary seems to suggest you are expecting it to happen soon. SO if you are slightly bearish on Oil now that must mean you are slightly short on it or slightly less long then. Define slightly as it pertains to your trading? You are bullish on Oil since 2003, so we are to assume that you are fully invested in it then? Does slight bearishness mean you take some off the table?
If you read reminiscences again you'll see that Larry was not slight about anything. You basically posted that you are getting more bearish the lower something goes. "I'll turn exceptionally bearish should oil break $50” Where is the sense in that? Don't you think that that is what everyone else is doing? Following the crowd?
I am long term bearish on oil over the next year. I'm long term bearish on energy metal commodities in general over the next year at least. Possibly longer depending on how much the global economy slows down.
My sourness is in the fact that you tend to post irrationally at times and that as you say you have an agenda for getting a gold standard again. I'm not a gloom and doom trader and I don't care to be. I see a short side and a long side. The minute I get involved or get political on any trading vehicle I'll get screwed on my trade. I see you getting that way about gold standards and fiat currencies.
As of right now I trade technicals to get ideal entry points. But I've come to find that most major market movements that last for a few years have nothing to do with actual technical analysis (RSIs, MACDs). They have everything to do with monetary policy of governments. You can identify a change in an indictor where people buy in when those shifts happen to get a good price but the 2002-2005 rally had everything to do with low Interest Rates. A money and a dart board would have done well in the market those years. Seriously, they actually did.
Now since we are getting near to where Interest Rates are expecting to slow the economy down you will see markets getting more volatile. Commodities are quick to feel the pain when that happens. So if you are asking my opinion on Oil. Somewhere around $35 for a bottom with $31 being an extreme. My $30 target was based on the previous top and a reply to Versatiletrader's question as to why Oil should go down to $30.
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