Biotech Values

[jq1234]

So what are your projections for peak annual sales of Uplyso for PLX given its 40% share of revenue? $100M? $200M? North or south of those figures?

I'd say $200m peak is reasonable. At least half would come from Israel market where PLX has full rights. Gaucher market continues to expand, not just from natural patient population expansion, but due to dosage by weight, when patients get older and heavier, cost more.

Was there anything in particular during the CC you heard that caused you to add to your position? What gives you the confidence that the FDA will ultimately approve Uplyso and in a timely manner? The ultimate approval of Uplyso is so critical for PLX because this is their first drug and this will either validate their entire pipeline or call it entirely into question. If one can gain confidence around the former then the stock probably looks very cheap now at ~$600M market cap. But there is a lot of risk as I don't know that one can entirely rule out the latter just yet.

I know the field and data well. My main worry was something we don't know, like ARNA's rat. It doesn't appear there is any. My cost average was about $6 before today, so when it fell into $6 range, I had no hesitation because the path is clearer to me than before the CRL. I am not a trader on this stock, so I have time. I hedged with option for this particular binary event, most likely won't from now on.

Sure there is risk, but risk worth of taking based on my knowledge of the area. MNTA has risk too, but one I am willing to take as well. DON'T BET THE FARM. Since it works in Gaucher, PLX sure can get to ERT for Fabry, MPSI, Pompe. They didn't have lots of resources before, and the trials in these areas last very long. They could only work on one at time. Plant cell based is a giant leap for recombinant protein production.

I made some comments here as well: http://www.gekkowire.com/?p=7157