TECHNICALS-Forex market views and key levels
NEW YORK, April 13 (Reuters) - Following is a selection of
comments from analysts on important technical developments in
the foreign exchange market:
ANDREW CHAVERIAT, SENIOR TECHNICAL STRATEGIST, BNP PARIBAS,
NEW YORK:
EURO/DOLLAR: "Medium-term, no change in the outlook.
Correcting the March-April decline. Look for a 1-3 week choppy,
corrective rise initially towards $1.3020/60/80-$1.3140 and
potentially $1.3220. That should present a good medium-term
sell opportunity later this month. Monday's rise above $1.2940
triggered a double-bottom objective at $1.3080, often the
"minimum" expectation for such a move. Short-term, The sloppy
and choppy rise since Friday's $1.2800 double-bottom
($1.2800-$1.3020-$1.2865-$1.2955) is indicative of the early
stages of a corrective rebound. Look for this rise to
accelerate and become more linear later on."
DOLLAR/YEN: "No change in view. Last week's 108.80/90 yen
quadruple-top and Monday's bearish trend reversal target a 1-3
week choppy fall towards 106.80/85 yen. Short-term: Look for
bounce off strong support at 107.10/15 yen: Today nears
107.10-15 yen swing support (matching the initial 108.88-107.50
yen decline projected off yesterday's 108.50 yen high). Hourly
momentum is bullish off oversold levels favoring a rise above
107.50 towards 107.85, possibly 108.00 yen."
GOLD: "COMEX June'05, long-term bearish. The March-April
decline ($450.80-$424.70) seen as the initial leg (wave 1) in a
medium-term decline that should ultimately break $414 (the 2005
low set in February) and open a fall to $400/below. Medium-term:Now correcting the March-April decline targeting an ABC
counter-trend rise (wave 2) towards $435-$437-$441 over the
next 1-2 weeks. That rise should present a very good
medium-term sell opportunity later this month."
JP MORGAN TECHNICAL STRATEGY TEAM:
DOLLAR/SWISS: "The 1.1945/40 franc area will act as initial
support, as breaks would imply a better test of the key
1.1900/1.1895 franc zone, which includes the April 1 low and
38.2% retracement from the March low. Above 1.2045/60 francs
reasserts the near-term upside bias within this short-term
range for a test of 1.2115/45 francs."
STERLING/DOLLAR: "Bounce from yesterday's low continues,
with a push towards the $1.8970 high. Still looks choppy over
the short term, with initial support resting at $1.8890/70,
before the key $1.8825/15 area. Breaks here would reassert the
near-term downside bias for a test of $1.8815 area."
EURO/STERLING: "The decline extends, with an overnight
break through the 68.25 pence, 50% retracement from the June
'04 low. Seems like to extend lower towards the 68.00 pence
area, if not 67.60 pence. Initial resistance starts at 68.50
pence."
EURO/YEN: "Extending lower with an impulsive bias,
following the break of the 139.50 yen support area. Initial
support at 138.30 yen, with breaks seeking a better test of the
critical 137.30/40 yen area. The 139.50 yen area will now act
as key resistance."
Currency bid prices at 11:41 a.m. EDT (1541 GMT). All data
taken from Reuters calculated from the levels at 4:30 p.m.
(2030 GMT) in the previous New York session.
Last US Close % YTD 2004
12 April Change %Change Close
-------------------------------------------------------------
Euro/dlr <EUR=> 1.2919 1.2921 -0.02 -4.71 1.3558
Dlr/yen <JPY=> 107.28 107.68 -0.37 +4.71 102.45
Euro/yen <EURJPY=> 138.60 139.17 -0.41 -0.20 138.88
Dlr/swiss <CHF=> 1.1992 1.1986 +0.05 +5.38 1.1380
Stg/dlr <GBP=> 1.8932 1.8919 +0.07 -1.31 1.9184
Dlr/cad <CAD=> 1.2373 1.2372 +0.01 +2.87 1.2028
Aus/dlr <AUD=> 0.7791 0.7751 +0.52 -0.36 0.7819
Euro/swiss <EURCHF=> 1.5491 1.5492 -0.01 +0.16 1.5466
Euro/stg <EURGBP=> 0.6822 0.6828 -0.09 -3.49 0.7069
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