Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[orphys13]

Based on HB's comment that ARIA in no rush to partner regionally for PONA due to current cash position signals we will not have any dilutive stock offerings in 2011. Based on anticipated cash position of $60M at 1/1/2012, expect at least a $100M capital raising in Q1-Q2 2012 (hopefully convertible debt offering with stock >$12)to fund Pona salesforce and hopefully PH II registration trial for 113.

I am also guessing that HB is undecided whether to create a European sales force. He needs to weigh the benefits of upfront cash from a larger European and Asian partnership versus an Asian partnership and the costs of maintaining a European sales force as well as the back end commercial value of holding European rights. I don't expect we hear of any regional partnerships until late 2011 or early 2012 or until Pona commercial benefits in MM and AML are better determined.

To optimize a Pona salesforce, next indications for Pona will be in MM and AML with solid tumors deferred. Hopefully compelling preclinical data in MM and AML will be presented at AACR.