AI
Wednesday, February 16, 2011 3:58:24 PM
I am long LGND and probably biased 
but I think the trial has an extremely high chance of success. To me the risk was safety and they should be done treatment period (or very nearly so) so the major risk is gone. They talked about the powering and Phase 2 results at their analyst day last year and they are way over powered for success. The trials needed the number of patients for safety.
My concern is longer term and if HCV therapies lose the Interferon then what use would be there (in HCV). I actually thought oncology may be a better long-term use. Ligand licensed a follow-on to GSK that has some better characteristics and there is also Nplate from Amgen.
but I think the trial has an extremely high chance of success. To me the risk was safety and they should be done treatment period (or very nearly so) so the major risk is gone. They talked about the powering and Phase 2 results at their analyst day last year and they are way over powered for success. The trials needed the number of patients for safety. My concern is longer term and if HCV therapies lose the Interferon then what use would be there (in HCV). I actually thought oncology may be a better long-term use. Ligand licensed a follow-on to GSK that has some better characteristics and there is also Nplate from Amgen.
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