Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Zeev Hed]

Aj, Actually, the January 2001 top, I had pretty much well "forecasted", I had "get out no later than 1:30 PM on 1/31/01 and stay under cover, until 2/28, expect a bounce on 2/28 and the bottom around 3/12 (ten days too early, the Dow bottomed 3/22). I had trouble with the fall of 2001, I had my "run for the hills" 5/22, on the dot, but initially I had a double bottom in August and October, and only in early August (when the initial decline did not accelerate enough) I cam up with the coalescence model, that later correction was on the dot (with 9/16 as the bottom at 1600 plus minus 30), except for the 4 days delay and the 9/11 impact that added 200 Naz points to the original target... (g). As for the recent nassacre, yes, that one I missed the bottom by a solid 20 days in the original forecast (I had 6/28 plus minus 2 days, or at the latest get in 7/3 early, which I did).

Of course, this time around, I could very well be missing the whole picture by keeping the cyclical bull scenario alive. But, we will see as the next decline develop if I should change that or not.

Zeev