Biotech Values

[mcbio]

mcbio much i like you i am very thankful i sold out of idix months ago. it was just 6-9 months ago i thought idix would be a main part in my biotech portfolio for longtime.

I feel very thankful and fortunate that I got out where I did as well. There was a time not so long ago when I thought IDIX was the surest thing in my biofolio. It's amazing how quickly fortunes can change in biotech. (I was also quite critical of VRUS' valuation before but I have done an almost 180 on VRUS given IDIX's woes.)

but i guess thats biotech investing.

Yep, it's why biotech stocks require so much hand-holding. I stand ready to change my opinion on any of my current, or future potential, holdings on any given day given how quickly circumstances can change. If there is a materially negative development that occurs that doesn't get adequately reflected in the share price (as I think was evident with IDIX), it's usually a good idea to get out.

for now dndn-- aria---amrn---tsrx---mnta are my 5 pics for 2011. much like 2010 with the exception of idix.

TSRX and MNTA are two of my largest holdings so I hope you're right on those two. I was all set to add ARIA but am still in limbo since MRK failed to mention rida on the last CC. I realize I'm probably overblowing things, but I still scratch my head to understand why MRK wouldn't at least give a brief mention during its last CC of a drug that showed positive Phase 3 results in the first of what appears to be many indications to follow. (I realize rida did get a brief line in the PR.) It would have also been nice to hear MRK confirm they would file the NDA for rida in sarcoma this year. But, no such luck so we're left to ponder. I will at least wait for ARIA's next CC to decide if I'm going long ARIA.

I am looking to add (or add to) two positions to my biofolio and I'm really just waiting on a lot of newsflow to determine which two I'll add. I'm choosing from ARIA, RIGL (need to see PFE formally end their partnership for the asthma drug), VRUS (need DDI data and possibly some kind of negative development with the lead nuke), EXEL (need more durability data on XL184 and want to see some dilution), and DEPO (will ABT walk?) mainly but also with an eye on ACHN (only after Phase 2a data on ACH-1625), MNTA (only if TEVA gets approval on tEnox and the stock drops), SNTA (need to see more data on the Hsp90 inhibitor coming at the end of this month), XNPT (would wait for Phase 2b GERD data), and DSCI (must see significant dilution first but still not sure if I'm sold on a wound-healing drug).