Biotech Values

[mcbio]

GSK/IDIX—There was writing on the wall that something was not right with GSK2248761 (a/k/a/ IDX899)—see the bottommost paragraph of #msg-56447982.

Great call on that Dew.

The termination of IDX320 was fully expected, of course.

Yep, no doubt. And IDX184 is still technically on a hold, albeit now apparently just a partial hold. I assume it will take the results from the next Phase 2b 12-week trial to get 184 off of the partial hold? Or maybe IDIX needs to present additional non-clinical data to have the partial hold lifted? Not sure on that. Either way, this just puts 184 further behind its nuke competition (namely the VRUS nukes) and I still think the potential issue of a prospective partner still having doubts about 184 even if the partial hold is lifted are likely to persist.

IDIX is down about 25% after hours but I'm not even sure that kind of drop captures the magnitude of how bad this news is for IDIX. The lead drug, the HIV drug, is probably toast now, 320 is done, 184 is further behind in the clinic and needs further data just to have the partial hold lifted and there will likely be those lingering questions about the drug. The next best shot is the NS5A inhibitor (I'm entirely discounting the non-nuke) that is still a bit away from the clinic (and well behind the BMY and ACHN NS5A inhibitors) and then you have additional PIs that are really way behind. I think I can safely say I won't ever be touching IDIX again.