Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Handicapping the Copaxone Patent Case

Based on the issuance of MNTA’s new patent, I’m updating my probability
that NVS/MNTA prevails in the Copaxone litigation on the non-infringement
argument from 30% to 55%. (I’m keeping the probabilities for prevailing on
each of the other three arguments unchanged because those arguments do
not depend in any way on MNTA’s technology.)

 
                    OLD probability    NEW probability 
                    NVS/MNTA prevails  NVS/MNTA prevails 
 Argument           on this argument   on this argument 
  
 Obviousness/ 
 double patenting         40%              40% 
  
 Non-infringement         30%              55% 
  
 Indefiniteness           10%              10% 
  
 Inequitable conduct       5%               5% 
 ===================      ===              === 
  
 Composite of  
 four arguments*          64%              77% 
  
  
 *Calculated by multiplying the probabilities  
 of each argument’s failing and subtracting 
 that product from 100%.

JMHO, FWIW