Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[west]

Bear Market rally and here is why, 1974 is the date given by many as the start of the new bull. Many say 1982 but it was actually 1974. These stats show reality, something this market does not comprehend!!!!!

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In 1974 consumer confidence was exploding into 1976 - from 40 to top out at 105 in 1976.

2003 the cc in a decline still, 140 in 2000 to 70ish at present!

Key will be to watch the CC data!

In 1974 the GDP to Debt ratio was 120%, it is now at 300%!

In 1974 the S&P data was:
PE/Div.Y/Price to Book/Bond Y
7.5/5.1%/1.07/6.5%!!!!!!!!

In 2003 the S&P data is:
34to50/1.7%/6.70/2.5%

In 1974 the Yield spiked to almost 6%.....

In 1974 the FED Funds Rate was 10.51!!!! - we know it was not 1.25!!!

-In 1973 it was 8.74
-In 1975 it was 5.82
-In 1976 it was 5.05

In 1974
A 6 month CD paid 10 to 11%
1 year note was 7.38%
10 year bond yield was 7.65%

In 2003
A 6 month CD pays 1.38%
1 year note pays 1.91%
10 year bond yield 4.05%