Intel Corp (INTC)

[Sarmad]

regarding the best argument against INTC stock (which is not the same as an argument against Intel continuing to be a successful company).

First, by the way, I also own approx the same number of INTC shares that you mentioned. But I trade them often, like cycling from a full position, to zero, and back, every two or three months. (based on my expectation of the stock price cycle).

Anyway, the current problem with INTC stock price is that the mobile computing device market share is increasing faster than the larger less mobile device share.

In the pocket size mobile sector, cellular connectivity is very important, and computing intensity is less important. Intel is strong in the computing power part, and weak in the cellular connectivity part. Therefor Intel's share of the total electronic device market is currently shrinking, and Apple's share is increasing.

The investment question is whether this is a permanent shift, or not ?

As chipguy explained, an ability to make chip variants in a low volume, quickly changing market is not Intel's strength. But will the mobile market keep evolving at this rate, where there are hundreds of different handsets, from a dozen of makers, being marketed by a hundred different carriers ?

And if Intel participated in this low volume market (for each variant), is there any profit for Intel in that ? (the answer is an obvious NO).

Will the market eveolve into the shape that Intel can participate and maintain its strength ? Well, what is Intel's strength ? Intel offers stability over a period of years and decades. And for that stability, one needs hardware, and software. In PC's, Intel supplied stability in the form of the x-86 hardware platform, and Microsoft supplied a stable MS-Windows platform.

If the same arrangement occurs in mobile, Intel will prosper, and so will INTC stock holders. If not, well, I guess, not.