If this is true, that the SOFA will not be negotiated in 2005, then Bush has time to put into effect his covert plans to arm certain factions and thus thrust the U.S. into a more favorable position.
Ethnic tensions are to be exacerbated in the Shi’ite south. The Shi'ites would then require protection from the United States against the armed militias - the very militias the United States clandestinely supports. The US would be asked to stay longer and the Shi’ites would be discredited.
You can probably come up with some different scenarios.
In a highly clandestine operation, the US has procured Pakistan-manufactured weapons, including rifles, rocket-propelled grenade launchers, ammunition, rockets and other light weaponry. Consignments have been loaded in bulk onto US military cargo aircraft at Chaklala airbase in the past few weeks. The aircraft arrived from and departed for Iraq.
The US-armed and supported militias in the south will comprise former members of the Ba'ath Party, which has already split into three factions, only one of which is pro-Saddam Hussein.