Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Astra stroke drug sales could hit $2 bln-Deutsche

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh72290_2005-04-01_11-29-36_l01...

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LONDON, April 1 (Reuters) - Global sales of AstraZeneca's ( AZN ) Cerovive drug for the treatment of strokes could reach more than $2 billion per year, much higher than current forecasts, analysts at Deutsche Bank said on Friday.

The bullish forecast boosted shares in Europe's third-biggest drugmaker, and at 1115 GMT AstraZeneca shares were up 1.2 percent at 2,110 pence.

Phase III clinical data on Cerovive are due this quarter and Deutsche analyst Mark Purcell said in a research note that potentially positive figures could add more than 14 percent to his valuation on the company.

"Assuming a 10 percent penetration rate of the 750,000 U.S. strokes cases recorded annually and a treatment cost of $15,000/patient suggests U.S. peak sales potential of $1.1 billion and $2 billion globally," Purcell said.

But he said expectatinos [funny typo!] for Cerovive remain limited due to past failures in developing neuroprotectant drugs, and despite the high potential sales he kept his forecast for peak sales at $132 million. Last October Merrill Lynch forecast sales could reach $200 million by 2008.

Cerovive is one of two key products the Anglo-Swedish group has in final-stage clinical trials. Its importance increased following last year's rejection of the firm's anti-clotting drug Exanta by U.S. regulators and a one-year delay to diabetes drug Galida, prompting concerns about Astra's product pipeline.

Cerovive, which AstraZeneca licensed from U.S. biotech firm Renovis Inc ( RNVS ), is designed to limit the damage caused by ischemic stroke. AstraZeneca said it aims to file for regulatory approval of the product in the second half of 2006.

Deutsche said AstraZeneca could also release positive news on a trio of other drugs over the next four months -- an Exanta follow-on drug; ulcer treatment AZD0865; and lung cancer product ZD6474.

It said sales potential of the trio and Cerovive could be about $8 billion, compared to its risk-adjusted sales projection of $533 million.
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