No I am not a "tad" short nor short nor long. This particular stock was brought to my attention by a friend who passed along to me the very hyped up promo mailer put out by the company in a mega dollar promotion. Some things you may want to be aware of. Oh, my background is 20 years spent in the securities business as an analyst and many of the stocks we followed were energy, thus, we are somewhat familiar with the way the Canadian regulators work.
If the company had made a significant find (which they haven't, just the potential of one) they would have to file any reserves estimates with the regulators. I could quote chapter and verse but rather than bore you with the details suffice it to say any event which could have a positive or negative impact upon the price of the stock would be required to be filed on SEDAR in Canada or EDGAR in the United States and a quick search will illustrate they have done neither. The last annual report the company filed indicates they have no cash flow or earnings so how one is attaching a value beyond pure speculation is beyond me. The 1.7 trillion barrels of oil may be accurate but even so, the bulk of that is in the Alberta oilsands and is quite a different beast than conventional oil.
In short, the press promo release was based on nothing but pure speculation, and a great deal of TV style advertising where you buy one and get extra gifts tacked on if you buy right away. Many of these promo's contain the same types of messages and supposed experts are in there telling you of incredible gains. There are many publicly traded stocks where the company is producing 15,000 bbls per day and they are trading under $2.00.
The fails to deliver is still an area where the SEC has to crack down as you can tell by the failure to deliver there are big fish looking to eat little fish. Unless the SEC remedies that problem (they should have to locate shares first before allowing a short position to be opened which also helped to drag the economy to its knees when fails to deliver on Lehman Brothers for example drove its share price into the dirt) then you are going to see cases like this where the share price is hyped by a third party who includes a disclaimer almost as long as the hype sheet and the share price rises, those in the know sell into the buying strength and then when all things come to pass and there is no pot of gold, those same traders then open up short positions and rape the stock on the way down. You have to be early, you have to be fast, and the truth is something you will find out later on as you wonder why your stock is now a penny stock again.
So in closing, do want you want if you can afford to lose some or all of it. It is after all your money. Ask yourself one simple question. Why do those hyping the stock give a rats patoutie about you? If you discovered a way to beat the house in Las Vegas would you tell the world or keep the secret to yourself? Generosity does know its bounds. Professionals don't give away their secrets.