Absent any new information, I rate the cumulative probability of FDA approval of NVS/MNTA’s Copaxone ANDA by the end of 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014, respectively, at 42%, 68%, 78%, and 84%. JMHO, FWIW
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be
the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated
in any area of human knowledge!”