It is not the size of the trial or the speed of the trial that makes it significant...
Ok, the trial may or may not show success. But my point was that if it does well I would virtually guarantee that it will be as much a surprise to the company's management as to us - since if they gave it any significant chance of commercial viability they wouldn't have let a trial that simple languish to 3-1/2 years duration.
Do you really want to bet against the company's own management - who clearly had little confidence in the drug for this indication? (the relevent aphorism is action speaks louder than words)