RANT & CHAT - No Politics

[SkeBallLarry]

How the inspections are going to go down...!!

Hans Blix and the first wave of weapons inspectors have arrived in Baghdad.

Blix and company will spend a few weeks getting their typewriters plugged in and then, presumably, the inspections will start.

These are just hunches … based on past experience and current news … but hunches anyway.

Here are some thoughts on just how I think these inspections may turn out.

Saddam knows that he has the support of much of the world and almost all of the UN when it comes to thwarting Bush's intentions.
He will use this support to come up with a series of objections to the inspection plans and actions.

So long as Bilx keeps his inspectors away from hot sites everything will be relatively smooth.
Come close to something sensitive and the roadblocks will go up.

One safe bet …

Blix and crowd will probably never actually find any hidden weapons.
Before they actually make that discovery the Iraqis will attempt to stall, and will then use force to prevent the discovery.

Blix said yesterday that it would take a "pattern" of interference on the part of the Iraqis for him to report any non-compliance to the Security Council.

Bush wants a zero tolerance policy on obstruction.

This is an indication that Blix isn't going to hold any feet to the fire.
It may well turn out to be a "go along to get along" inspection regime.

We have no real control over the inspection team.

There is nothing to prevent Blix from sending those inspectors to locations where he knows they will be well received and no violations will be found.
To much of Europe there is no real desire for the UN to actually uncover Saddam's weapons programs.

They do not want the US to move against Iraq, and the best way to prevent this is to not find out what Hussein is up to.

As soon as it becomes apparent that Hussein is obstructing the inspections there will be a new wave of objections against any use of force by the US.

Russia has already said that there must be a second Security Council vote before military action begins.

Look for this to become the default position of much of the world as time for action draws near.



...........Larry....!!..

...........The best is YET to come....!!..