As an example of how inefficient the market is, MON shares have risen a whopping 61% in the past six months even though there has been no news of great consequence during this period.
And you don't consider commodities to be of any consequence? During the same timeframe Potash is up 80%, Dupont 40% and Cat 50%. Keep in mind that Mon is still down 20% year over year while the other stocks are up 40% to 50% each.
Commodities are going to be the breaking point with the tailwind theory.