Biotech Values

[bladerunner1717]

jq1234,

That's exactly the point.

It's easy for Dew to play "chickenhawk" on macroeconomics and the global economy, when he has never put himself on the line for predictions on macroeconomic conditions. He can act churlishly and make smartalecky remarks about economists (and posters) who have warned about the dangers of a "double-dip" or a "muddle-through" economic scenario, but at least the folks that Dew is so eager to denounce have put themselves on the line with their predictions.

But, I think a reasonable argument can still be made for the "double-dip" scenario with continuing high rates of unemployment (effective rates around 16-18% at the national level and around 22% in Los Angeles County, where I reside, in the allegedly "recession-proof" Southern California economy), a continuing crisis in and still deteriorating housing sector, Depression-like sentiment numbers, budgetary crises in large states like New York, California, Michigan, Illinois and, yes, even Texas, with the resultant state budget cuts that will only lead to lower tax revenues, higher unemployment and a further strain on already-strapped state and local governments; American households continuing to de-leverage, rising rates of personal bankruptcies, a commodity and food inflation that acts like a tax on the American consumer adding to household debt problems ($3.57/gallon for "regular" where I live), the continuing debt problems in the Eurozone; and the fact that "stimulus" money and QE money tends to wind up in Asia, as Alex Wei and Joseph Stiglitz have pointed out. And the Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI), an index that Dew likes to cite on his other board, "Global Resources," has shown some serious deterioration recently. See this chart:

http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm

There are some positives to be sure, especially for the Market. The disjunction between Main Street and Wall Street could grow even more pronounced in 2011. Today was certainly a good start to the new year, and let's hope it continues.

Personally, I'm in the "muddle-through" category, but I like to look at as many viewpoints as I can.


Bladerunner