I'm just saying it doesn't look likely - at least if the SPA primary endpoint involves ACR20.
I respectfully disagree. In some cases, the FDA has allowed a drug with only half the clinical benefit of the comparator to be deemed non-inferior. With a generous non-inferiority margin set forth in an SPA, based on the data to date I would say that a finding of non-inferiority is reasonably likely in this instance.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”