I'm sorry but I'm having a hard time equating "low probability of a competitor approval in the next few years" (with respect to mLovenox) and "high probability of generic Copaxone approval" (without even considering the rest of the pipeline) to a $15 12-month price target
easy. first start off underestimating the US lovenox market at $1.8B (SNY reports in euros and for the first 6 months of 2010 US lovenox generated over 900M euros so it could be as basic a mistake as forgetting to convert euros to dollars). then use the initial market penetration of 35-40% out into 2011, regardless of the fact the company has stated they are north of 40% market share, that NVS most recently mentioned they were at 50%, which is also supported by script data, and lo and behold you get an asset which you estimate will generate $3 a share in 2011 as a sole generic - which is about half of what anyone with a brain estimates lovenox will generate if mnta retains sole generic status. then underestimate mnta's royalty in a multiple generic scenario (.2/share or 11M/year) by a factor of about 3 (>1B in sales down to 120M with 1-2 more generic entrants - really??)..and voila - $15 a share and to think people pay money for these reports
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