Biotech Values

[tinkershaw]

to a $15 12-month price target.

It does not need to make sense as long as that is what the market will value it as. It is all perception. Anyone remember when DNDN was $2.50, or ITMN was less than 1/2 its current value (oh yes, last week). The buy recommendations only came thereafter.

Yes, until such time as copaxone comes to fruition, or the cash piles up and time go buys when Teva flaps its gums and gains no approval that perception will change.

During the last 2-3 weeks I've made some very nice profits on EXEL and MAKO. Pondering through everything as I did sell out my MNTA as there were just greener pastures at the time as the share price was clearly languishing. Give it 12-24 months (which is not a long time in investment parlance) and MNTA "reality" may come to fruition. Which means real world events will change the fear, uncertainty, and doubt. I am quite tempted to move some of these profits back into MNTA. As always thinking risk/reward.

It is one big advantage we have over institutional investors, in that we can look forward more than one or two quarters. And see through FUD. I think copaxone is the big event here that Teva cannot threaten. FDA gives copaxone the go ahead, and the share price will move.

In any event, the numbers and facts in the report don't fit a $15 price target, but it is reasonable only when taking into account the FUD surrounding MNTA. Resolve some of the FUD and there is a lot of room for share price growth. Goldman will thereafter move MNTA to a buy after the fact.

Tinker