Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Zeev Hed]

While I don't agree I understand where you are coming from. I think that a major difference is that your modeling uses price patterns almost exclusively (as E-wavers do?), while I also use additional parameters like sentiment indicators. My point is that like last September, in late July, we set up a major bottom in sentiment indicator that was retested (though at marginally lower prices) with sentiment indicators far from reaching the same excesses in October. That indicates to me that that at least a short term (cyclical) bull move (maybe as short as the September/January Move, but for various reasons, I think it will be longer this time) has indeed been started, and thus right now I don't have a retest of the lows until we go through the major resistance just above 1500. If we make a double top there (or if the 1426 here proves to be a double top with the 8/22 top), I may join you in the bear den for longer, For now, I don't have much more than that 1222.22 as the next low. One interesting parameter to watch would be expansion of new lows on the current decline, if by the time we reach 1222.22 we are not registering more than about 180 new lows on the Naz, I think we may be safe (namely we may not go much lower), IMTO.

Zeev