One of the reasons that the possible resolution looks different to different observers is that all have some truth. I know from non-Cortex sources that Cortex has a banker testing the waters for buyout/M&A opportunities. I know from non-Cortex sources that they have discussed the possibility of a very novel approach to funding Phase II--but the degree of control they would have to cede, and the eventual cost to them, could be problematic. There is no doubt that they have discussed partnering various chunks of the company: CX-1739; a set of low-impacts; high impacts. This is not news, they've stated previously that they were exploring a number of options.
I believe what JD was referring to is the fact that BPs pay up front for data, data which Cortex does not have for CX-1739 in ADHD, sz, ADS, or depression. And as to what they have for SA, I don't know, but I don't think that a complete lack of signal would have been stretched out this long. I disagree with the premise that all consultation could have been before the fact: We are not talking about setting up the statistical analysis, I think the issue is in sorting out what the resulting pattern of data may mean--whether it's a clinically meaningful signal, and for which SA patients. If it is ambiguous, the likelihood of it being seen as sufficient for partnering goes way down.
I haven't finalized my 2010 CNS partnering/licensing database yet, but even the partial set is telling. 22 deals; six of them have been or will be disassembled (with Biovail and Cypress Biosciences); Nine are in or have finished Phase III. Several are platform discovery deals where companies are collaborating on defining targets and compounds for them. They tend to involve small upfront payments, Cortex is beyond that stage. NONE of them involve a clinical-stage compound which does not yet have Phase IIa data in the indication of interest. Which, pending SA, is the situation with CX-1739. In theory, BPs are doing more option deals, but they have not done so in CNS, with programs that are not advanced. The option deal done in 2010 that is of note was Trophos with Actelion, and that compound is in Phase III.
It would surprise me greatly if Samyang is interested in a $5 million funding aimed at paying for a Phase II in ADHD. They seem to like smaller investments. And to raise $5 million at this price level would mean diluting by 35-40% or so.. That doesn't seem realistic.
I'm not drawing a conclusion as to what is most likely to happen until this seemingly interminable SA trial reports, and we know what the signal is, other than the likelihood that it is neither zero nor very strong.
All of this is based on indirect info, disconnected pieces of information: a couple of blind men palpating the proverbial elephant, but nothing direct. This could all be wrong.
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