Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Zeev Hed]

Maybe, you should research before you make stupids and very wrong statements, here is my 12/29/01 forecast for 2002: #reply-16842549 (note the date)

"We have already had our first top at about 2065 (and 10220 on the Dow) earlier this month. In January I expect a run to at least 2123 (possibly 2160) and probably within the first two weeks. Then a mild decline (no worse than 1960 or so, probable bottom at 2010) lasting most of February. After that , I have two additional rallies failing around early April and mid May respectively. Both of these peaking around 2250 on the Naz (outside possibility of a top at 2388). Strangely, then I have the major decline of the year into late June (a bottom about a week or so before July fourth, make it around June 28th plus minus two day) to about 1650 on the naz. Wading around the bottom here during the summer months in the range of 1650 to 1940 (the first run, early in July potentially quite powerful), and depending on the evolution of our "War against Terrorism", another major bottom late in September or very early in October this one, possibly to 1450/80 on the Naz. From that Nadir, I have a straight move up of about 50% on the Naz to around 2150 or so by the end of 2002".

(mind you the turnips shaved a clean 300 points off all these forecasts on April 22, during my pre nassacre "run for the hills" call, for post April 22nd targets,)

I have the Dow doing "better" and "worst", the high for the year, I have at 11350, but the low I have under 7500.

The reason I classified your post as a "Mark Johnson" lie was because it used half truths: that 3000 number is mentioned here (that paragraph is the preamble to the paragraph above) "as having a very low probability right now".

The September lows were accompanied by major capitulative signals, thus it should be considered a major bear bottom. Yet, the failure to establish that bottom with a strong retest prevented accumulation of inventory by "They". That accumulation will, however, be provided to "Them" in due time. Thus, I have the current bull move to continue until the "psychology" of the market breaks. I "see" two potential modalities for such a shift, buy panic (signaled by at least three/seven consecutive days of excessive reading in the tick on both the Naz and NYSE), and a more likely modality, a gradual buying exhaustion in which a series of tops, each lower than the other if not if heights, in momentum and strength indicators), lead to a major decline to retest the lows. Since I do not think we will be faced with the first modality, the scenario for the next twelve months, given below, assumes the second modality to be operative (the first modality would have induced the "to da moon" scenario with a high near 3000 on the Naz, but I view this modality as having a very low probability right now).

I have donned my horns for probably less than 15% of the time this year , so far, surely does not classify as "he never turned bearish...". What is a nassacre, a walk in the park or a call for performance that is worst than the February Massacre (frecasted In december of 2000 for February 2001)? What I can't understand is that you were the one that was so incredulous about my forecast May 11 this year that the Dow will see prices between 7500 and 8000. So much that I went through the troubles (and just for your benefit) to show how that is reached stock by stock, giving target hits for each of the 30 Dows till the end of the year, of which a full 90% were hit so far, and only one was much more than a buck away (AXP I had $19 drop and it dropped a max of $14...). Either you should go to a physician and see what is wrong with your memory, or get off that soap box and when you make falacious statements, better have backing for them

By the way, I missed very little of the ramp from the 1693 low in February, just go and check the record....about 50 to 100 Naz points at worst.