Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

>>My 100% unscientific thought is that prices might be a little lower this afternoon as some laggards react to the news and sell, plus others may sell going into the weekend so they can re-evaluate GTCB.<<

Could be, but I don’t have a good feel for that. I think the price I got this morning more than compensates for the risk.

I see a 75% chance the EMEA wants non-clinical data pertaining to purification/characterization and only a 25% chance the Agency wants a new clinical study.

In the former case it may not be a cakewalk, but I have no reason to suppose that GTCB won’t be able to comply in due course, i.e. 3-6 months worst case.

In the latter case (more clinical trials), GTCB would need to raise money on very unfavorable terms with an unclear endgame; hence, to be conservative, I am attributing no shareholder value at all to this scenario.

Still, the 75% (IMHO) case with no new trials has so much upside that it more than justifies buying at these levels. JMHO, FWIW