Reminding about your proposal....
You propose 25 years.....but there is a problem
TATF also also proposes 7 years 13 years 17 years and 20 years harvests......so your advice is:
Throw away all those TATF forecasts from its web site and if you want buy plantation teak: wait 25 years.
That is case you are making.
For that simple reason, the case you are making for TATF you are saying that TATF web site is deceptive. Simply put,
based in your statement, TATF should eliminate from its publicity all forecasts except the 25 year teak.
That is the case you are making. The return on investment for waiting 25 years will be around 4.2% per year. Consider the St. Louis Federal reserve metrics for inflation and present value of money.
In plain dollars your statement will look like this:
1) you cannot buy from TATF website 25 year teak.....see the site only 20 year final harvest!
2) Let's say 20 final harvest will be the only possibility for last year buyer. In that case:
Cost of buying the tree: $41
After 20 years based on TATF forecasts a tree will yield .81 cubic meters. That is a hell of a 20 year old tree!!!!! In fact hat is 50% bigger than FAO, USFS, ITTO research of farm grown trees.
Now let's use real numbers from the US Forestry database.
A 20 year old teak log will yield a gross of ~0.35 to ~0.41 per tree.
Based on the value of money the sale price will be around $102 gross per tree equivalent of today's dollars, now add TATF commissions you are left with $79 per tree.
So What you were saying? That TATF misleads people!!!!! You are right!
There is another problem, for at least 10 years, TATF was promoting 25 year harvests, for 2010 all that "disappeared" from their web marketing. Now we have a totally new deception in place....fast growing teak....You know that there is no scientific research done in what TATF is promoting as "new" it sounds to me like a reincarnation of the past deception.
