Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Thanks, Tinker. I would submit that the VRTX and EXEL situations are quite different insofar as it’s considerably easier to tell if an antiviral drug is going to be a success than it is to tell if a cancer drug is going to be a success.

For antivirals such as Telaprevir, the MoA is much better understood than any cancer pathway I’m aware of, and efficacy can often be established as early as phase-1b/2a. After that, if there are no unexpected safety problems, you’re basically home free from a regulatory standpoint. Moreover, for Telaprevir, it has been clear for several years that the commercial opportunity is huge and the competition is either late or inferior.

With EXEL’s XL184, none of the above calculations is anywhere near as simple as the corresponding calculations for Telaprevir, IMO.