FinancialAdvisor's College Class (FACC)

[AnderL]

COTS DATA Conclusion its the 70s all over again.

Judging from all these charts, the increasingly disturbing shift to speculation that equity and commodity markets are going down while Treasury yields are going up tells me that they are going to suppress inflation any way they can. I’m expecting that we are going to see a recession very shortly. The Fed is going to keep raising interest rates at its measured pace or faster until equities and commodities finally buckle under the weight of those rates. Until the existing global demand is finally silenced because of the economic slowdown. We are going to see the Fed Rate running up Treasuries relative to what we saw in the 70s. But will that bring $80 oil. Not likely. I think we are now seeing the highest oil will get. We may see another $10 get added on top of the $54 a barrel oil but this may be the limit.

Before he leaves his position Greenspan is going to force American consumers off the credit teat. High yields and a drifting stock market will insure that fate. Think of it this way. If all those US dollars are going to get repatriated, who do you thing is going to be left holding them? I mean to repatriate the US Dollars in foreign hands means that someone in the US need to be willing to take them in.