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Sunday, 11/28/2010 10:55:30 PM

Sunday, November 28, 2010 10:55:30 PM

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Monday Morning Outlook: Market Stuck in Neutral; DJIA Slips Below 11,100
SPX, Nasdaq are still looking at gains for month of November

by Todd Salamone 11/27/2010 10:37 AM

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/observations.aspx?ID=103703

The Dow Jones Industrial Average's post-election slump continued, with the blue chip barometer slipping below 11,100 at the end of the holiday-shortened week. Looking ahead, Todd Salamone, Senior Vice President of Research, compares the trading range behavior we've seen recently to the action at this time last year. Next, Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White finds that the market's performance in the week following Black Friday, the kickoff to the shopping season, can be an indicator for performance the rest of the year, and indeed, even the next quarter. Finally, we wrap up with a look at some key economic and earnings reports slated for release this week.

Recap of the Previous Week: Thanksgiving Week Pullback
Schaeffer's Editorial Staff

Rocky White called it, just like Babe Ruth's called shot in the 1932 World Series. Last week in this space, our Senior Quantitative Analyst analyzed the market's historical performance during Thanksgiving week and found that the week tends to perform countertrend to the year to date. That is, if the market is up, as it is this year, Thanksgiving week tends to see a pullback. Sure enough, the Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 1% last week. Of course, Mr. White had a little help from renewed worries over euro zone debt, hostilities between the Koreas, FBI raids on major hedge funds and the kickoff to the holiday shopping season, but still: Our hat's off to Rocky.

The holiday week got off to a decidedly downbeat start Monday with FBI raids on several major hedge funds in connection with a major insider trading investigation. Goldman Sachs (GS) is among the targets of the investigation, according to The Wall Street Journal, which broke the story online the previous Friday night and in print on Saturday. The probe "could eclipse the impact on the financial industry of any previous such investigation," according to the Journal. Traders also watched developments in Ireland, which agreed to accept an aid package tied to budgetary constraints. The Dow shed 0.22% for the day.

The more than 60-year-old conflict between the two Koreas heated up again Tuesday when North Korea shelled a South Korean island and the South returned fire. There's nothing like a shooting war between Cold War proxies to take the starch out of Wall Street. The geopolitical tensions overshadowed an upbeat gross domestic product report, which showed the economy grew 2.5% during the third quarter, up from the initial estimate of 2%. The minutes from the early-November Federal Open Market Committee meeting also weighed on traders. Fed officials lowered their expectations for economic growth and warned that a return to normal unemployment levels could be years away. The Dow sank 1.27%.

First-time jobless claims came in at 407,000 early Wednesday, far lower than expected and the lowest level in more than two years, and the bulls were off to the races. The University of Michigan reported that its consumer sentiment index was 71.6, another better-than-expected reading as the holiday approached. The Dow soared 150 points, or 1.37%, erasing Tuesday's losses.

Wall Street took Thanksgiving Day off, of course, but returned from the feasting in a sour mood. Renewed worries about sovereign debt in Portugal and Spain were not assuaged by those countries' tough new budgetary measures. In a shortened post-holiday session that ended at 1 p.m., the Dow fell 0.85%. For the week, the Dow fell about 1% and the S&P 500 Index slipped 0.8%. The Nasdaq Composite, meanwhile was in positive territory last week, gaining 0.6%. Furthermore, although the Dow is down for the month to date, the SPX and Nasdaq are still on track for gains in November.

What the Trading Desk Is Expecting: Trading Range Reminiscent of Late 2009
By Todd Salamone, Senior Vice President of Research

"The 3.8% decline from the S&P 500 Index's (SPX) 1,225 closing high earlier this month pushed the SPX down to its 40-day moving average, which coincides with a former area of congestion from mid-to-late October. As we move into a holiday-shortened week, this area is potentially supportive if another pullback occurs... Longer-term resistance levels still reside just above last week's SPX close, which could continue to put a lid on the market. Specifically, the round-number 1,200 level – an area of congestion in 2005 – the 80-month moving average at 1,206, and the 1,230 area, site of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2007 high and 2009 trough, could collaborate to cap the market's progress... With retail investors pulling cash out of domestic equity funds for 28 consecutive weeks, it is the under-invested hedge funds that have the capability to drive significant rallies. Without more support from this crowd, the market is exposed to the mean-reversion games of the high-frequency traders, especially with the defined areas of support and resistance as discussed above in play."

--Monday Morning Outlook, Nov. 20, 2010

Last week's holiday-shortened week was dominated by overseas headlines ranging from escalating tensions between North and South Korea, anticipation that Portugal and Spain could be the next to seek bailouts and, albeit on a smaller scale, continued speculation that a Chinese rate hike is imminent. Amid the negative headlines, mean-reversion best defines the resultant price action on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) last week, as the index found itself strangled between 1,180 and 1,200 during the week, with sharp moves to these levels driven by overnight news that created significant movement at the opening bell. At the end of the week, the SPX found itself exactly between support at 1,180 and resistance at 1,200.



As discussed a few weeks ago, it is looking more and more like the price action of the broader market is vulnerable to the trading range behavior that occurred between mid-November and mid-December 2009, when longer-term resistance levels also capped market rallies. In fact, except for the brief breakout above 1,200 immediately following QE2 and the midterm elections, the SPX has experienced little net movement since mid-October.



The sideways price action, while frustrating for anyone with a time frame beyond a few weeks, might be considered a win for market bulls, considering that:

1. News stories from overseas (China, Europe, North and South Korea) have not been positive drivers.

2. Yields on the 10-year Treasury note have surged 50 basis points since mid-October, from 2.40% to last week's highs around 2.90%.

3. We are seeing evidence that hedge funds are no longer in accumulation mode.

4. There is no support from retail investors, who continue to pull money out of domestic stock mutual funds (they pulled $2.8 billion from domestic equity funds in the latest week, according to the Investment Company Institute).

Above being said, a lesson learned in early May is that when the high-frequency players are the only game in town -- as they appear to be now -- things can get quite ugly if "surprises" emerge and these players abruptly depart the playing field.

It is for this reason that we continue to be strong advocates of using cheap put premiums to protect your long positions, especially in instances where implied volatility on individual stock options has plummeted after a company announces earnings. We have noticed that option premiums have reached multi-month lows on some stocks.

Or, another strategy is to buy call options in lieu of purchasing shares of a stock that you expect to make an upside move. Given that options give you control over a specified number of shares at a fraction of the cost to own the shares outright, you can position yourself to profit handsomely if the underlying moves in your expected direction, while simultaneously putting less capital at risk during these tenuous times.

A sector that will gather much attention during the next several weeks will be the consumer discretionary group, particularly retailers. (Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White discusses this in more depth in the next section.) Despite concerns about the health of the consumer, retail stocks, as measured by the SPDR S&P Retail Trust (XRT – 47.33), are among the strongest performers year to date. The exchange-traded fund, in fact, was positive while the broader market traded lower on Friday. Several earnings reports in the group are due in December, while holiday sales will be carefully monitored by investors. How this group does relative to expectations will dictate near-term price action in this group and could even influence broad market sentiment.

According to a Bloomberg article on Friday, "estimates for holiday sales vary from little changed to increases of as much as 4.5 percent. The retail federation predicts a gain of 2.3 percent to $447.1 billion after an uptick of 0.4 percent last year and a 3.9 percent drop in 2008... Same-store sales for November and December may advance as much as 3.5 percent, the largest increase since 2006, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers."

We have seen put buying on XRT amid strong price action in recent weeks, a sign that hedged buyers may be accumulating these equities, which we tend to view as bullish. Moreover, buy-to-open option volume has increased on XRT in recent weeks, and such activity has tended to foreshadow rallies in the sector dating back to April 2009. We continue to favor the consumer discretionary group, which includes some retail and restaurant stocks.

If you want to hedge long stock exposure to this group, XRT options are cheap. The January 46 put, for example, is trading at a 27.5% implied volatility, and protects you on downside movement below 46 through December expiration. Implied volatility on XRT options is slightly above April 2010's low of 20%, which was a three-year low. For perspective, XRT options were trading at 30% at this time last year, and 37% at the end of June.



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Indicator of the Week: Black Friday Reactions
By Rocky White, Senior Quantitative Analyst

Foreword: Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, was Black Friday, the beginning of the holiday shopping season. There will be plenty of media attention this week as Black Friday sales data is disclosed. Economists will be analyzing the data and suggesting what it reveals about the condition of the economy. Since Black Friday is considered to be so significant, it might be useful to keep a close eye on the market's reaction this week. In the analysis below, I went back 20 years to see if the market's one-week reaction to Black Friday told us anything about what to expect from the stock market going forward.

Analysis: I looked at the performance of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the week after Black Friday. Then I recorded the returns for the rest of the year following that week, and broke down those returns depending on whether the week after Black Friday was positive or negative. The table shows the reaction to Black Friday has been a pretty good indicator for the rest of the year. In the last 20 years, the week after Black Friday has been positive 12 times. In those years the rest of the year has averaged a pretty impressive return of 2.01%. Furthermore, 10 out of 12 times (83%) the return for the rest of the year was positive. In the eight years that the week after was negative, the average return was only 0.69%.

SPX rest of year returns following Black Friday


The difference is even more prominent when you look farther out. Rather than looking at returns until the end of the year (approximately one month), the table below looks at returns over the next three months. When the market is up in the week following Black Friday, the SPX was up on average more than 4% in the next three months. If the week after Black Friday is down, then the market goes down on average by 1.86%.

SPX 3-month returns following Black Friday


Implications: The consumer 's willingness to spend money is considered vital to this market. Sales data from last week will be highly scrutinized, and there will be plenty of articles on what the data tells us about economy. It might be a good idea to note the market's reaction. The analysis above shows it could be a good indication of what's in store going forward.

This Week's Key Events: November Jobless Data on Tap Friday
Schaeffer's Editorial Staff

Here is a brief list of some of the key events this week. All earnings dates listed below are tentative and subject to change. Please check with each company's respective website for official reporting dates.

Monday
* There are no major economic reports scheduled for Monday. Inergy, L.P. will report earnings.

Tuesday
* The Case-Shiller 20-city index for September will be released, along with the Chicago purchasing managers' index for November. The Conference Board, meanwhile, will publish its survey on consumer confidence in November. Barnes & Noble Inc. (BKS), Trina Solar Limited (TSL), and OmniVision Technologies Ltd. (OVTI) are scheduled to issue their quarterly reports.

Wednesday
* Wednesday will be busy. ADP and Challenger, Gray & Christmas will kick off three successive days of jobs data, with the former reporting on private sector growth in November, and the latter releasing data on layoffs. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will publish its November manufacturing index, and the Commerce Department will report on construction spending in October and auto sales in November. The Fed will issue its Beige Book for December, and we'll get the usual weekly report on crude inventories. Scheduled to report earnings are Charming Shoppes Inc. (CHRS), Aeropostale Inc. (ARO), Collective Brands Inc. (PSS), Jo-Ann Stores Inc. (JAS), Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD) and Zumiez Inc. (ZUMZ).

Thursday
* The Labor Department will give us its weekly look at jobless claims. Del Monte Foods Company (DLM), The Kroger Co. (KR) Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL), Coldwater Creek Inc. (CWTR), Novell Inc. (NOVL) and VeriFone Systems Inc. (PAY) plan to report earnings.

Friday
* The Labor Department will report on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate for November, while the Commerce Department will unveil its findings on October factory orders. The ISM, meanwhile, will release its services index for November. Big Lots Inc. (BIG) will report earnings.

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