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Friday, March 11, 2005 10:56:14 AM
***Thoughts on $GOLD/oil and looking ahead***
To get straight to the point...
$GOLD going to minimum $550, I just did some math, I'm pretty convinced that oil is going to $69/barrel, it's going to bounce off of the 38.2% fib retracement I think between the last wave up, and it's due for a climax wave 5 which technically puts it at $69 which is the inverse of the down move at the end of last year... This means $GOLD minimally $530, and maximum $980 (I'm looking for $650 personally)... based on past historical relationships between gold/oil, see this chart for more details and do the math on $69/oil if you don't believe me...:
If oil breaks through $56, it basically puts in concrete that high crude oil prices are here to stay and that the range bound bull$hit that they've been spouting for oil between $40-$50 becomes just that... a new all-time high is the recipe also for the crash that I've seen, what we've seen when oil was pulling back was an inverse relationship with the market, and then shortly after it bottomed out, we saw a direct market relationship with energy stocks taking leadership, well expect the inverse relationship to come back once/if it breaks $56!
On a side note about oil equities if oil does this, to be blunt, I don't like oil equities at current positions for long-term holders, and if oil does break out, if you look at the XOI, they've already forseen this by busting after new high after new high in '05, so in other words, it's already priced in, and equities will COLLAPSE upon oil at a new all-time high, this includes OIL EQUITIES, on the other hand GOLD EQUITIES will fare extremely well, they are due for a wave 5 (climax) within this trend and they have NOT broken to new highs or even all-time highs, even when $GOLD beat a double-top late last year and tagged $455, the $GOLD equities failed to reach new 52-week highs...
In short, just about every equity is about to get ramsacked BUT precious metals such as silver and $GOLD...
To get straight to the point...
$GOLD going to minimum $550, I just did some math, I'm pretty convinced that oil is going to $69/barrel, it's going to bounce off of the 38.2% fib retracement I think between the last wave up, and it's due for a climax wave 5 which technically puts it at $69 which is the inverse of the down move at the end of last year... This means $GOLD minimally $530, and maximum $980 (I'm looking for $650 personally)... based on past historical relationships between gold/oil, see this chart for more details and do the math on $69/oil if you don't believe me...:
If oil breaks through $56, it basically puts in concrete that high crude oil prices are here to stay and that the range bound bull$hit that they've been spouting for oil between $40-$50 becomes just that... a new all-time high is the recipe also for the crash that I've seen, what we've seen when oil was pulling back was an inverse relationship with the market, and then shortly after it bottomed out, we saw a direct market relationship with energy stocks taking leadership, well expect the inverse relationship to come back once/if it breaks $56!
On a side note about oil equities if oil does this, to be blunt, I don't like oil equities at current positions for long-term holders, and if oil does break out, if you look at the XOI, they've already forseen this by busting after new high after new high in '05, so in other words, it's already priced in, and equities will COLLAPSE upon oil at a new all-time high, this includes OIL EQUITIES, on the other hand GOLD EQUITIES will fare extremely well, they are due for a wave 5 (climax) within this trend and they have NOT broken to new highs or even all-time highs, even when $GOLD beat a double-top late last year and tagged $455, the $GOLD equities failed to reach new 52-week highs...
In short, just about every equity is about to get ramsacked BUT precious metals such as silver and $GOLD...
HI-HO SILVER !!!
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