Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Lucentis does not require twice as many injections as VEGF-Trap-Eye. In the real world (as opposed to clinical trials), Lucentis patients receive 7-8 injections per year on average, while patents in the bimonthly-dosing arm of the VEGF-Trap-Eye trials received 7 injections during the first year because they were dosed monthly during the initial 3-month loading period.

So, all told, there is hardly any difference between the frequency of injections for the two drugs.

REGN management is not saying that VEGF-Trap-Eye will allow fewer injections than Lucentis, but rather that it will allow fewer doctor visits because patients on VEGF-Trap-Eye supposedly do not have to be monitored every month. I think this is an inconsequential benefit, and it may not be a medical benefit at all insofar as patients undergoing drug treatment for wet AMD probably should be seen by a doctor every month, at least during the first year of treatment.

I predict that VEGF-Trap-Eye will be a commercial bust because it’s not clearly better than Lucentis, it will be much more expensive than Avastin, and it lacks the long-term safety data of either comparator.