Can someone please tell me where I am wrong? I ran brief valuation to get a better sense of the $225.1mm real estate inventory valuation from the latest Sept 30 2010 10-Q.
Take the current Brightwater inventory (page 30) and use the most recent sales for each subgroup as well as the most recent gross margin estimates, as follows:
Trails Model and Inventory homes (8 * $900,000)
Trails lots remaining (19 * 900,000 * 3%)
Sands Model and Inventory homes, no view (6 * 900,000)
Sands Model and Inventory homes, with view (1 * 1,800,000)
Sands lots remaining, no view (53 * 900,000 * 3%)
Sands lots remaining, with view ( 1 * 1,800,000 * 5%)
Cliffs Model and Inventory homes, no view (2 * 1,400,000)
Cliffs Model and Inventory homes, with view (3 * 2,400,000)
Cliffs lots remaining, no view (70 * 1,400,000 * 12%)
Cliffs lots remaining, with view (20 * 2,400,000 * 18%)
Breakers Model and Inventory homes, no view (4 * 1,400,000)
Breakers Model and Inventory homes, with view (3 * 2,400,000)
Breakers lots remaining, no view (61 * 1,400,000 * 12%)
Breakers lots remaining, with view (28 * 2,400,000 * 18%)
Assuming everything sells at these levels, CFFO is $82mm! I'm not even including the 11.5mm cost to improve the remaining 23% of the vacant lots (58 at 200k per).
With a BS valuation of 225mm, the other 5 acre Huntington Beach lot plus Lancaster would not make up the difference.
With Luxor at one point willing to lend 180mm, my insticts tell me I may be making a gross miscalculation but I dont see it. What am I missing?
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