Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

I also believed Xarelto would have edge over Pradaxa if it was not clear in my original post. My point was the edge would be smaller without superiority over warfarin from Xarelto.

I thought your preference for Xarelto was based mostly on JNJ’s marketing muscle. Although I don’t dismiss the importance of marketing in an indication such as this one, BI could presumably match JNJ’s “share of voice” by inking a co-marketing deal with a big company or hiring more US sales reps.

However, there’s nothing BI can do about Pradaxa’s renal-impairment issue or the lack of data in high-risk patients (short of running a humongous trial that would take several years to complete). Hence, I give Xarelto the commercial edge over Pradaxa regardless of who is detailing the drugs.

Moreover, BMY/PFE have cleverly established a beachhead for Apixaban in the non-warfarin portion of the AF market, so I expect Apixaban to rack up decent sales in AF even if the pending head-to-head phase-3 ARISTOTLE study ends up disappointing.

All told, my commercial ranking at this point is Xarelto, Apixaban, Pradaxa; however, Xarelto and Apixaban still have to get past the FDA, and this can’t be taken for granted.