Bayer, J&J's Xarelto Bests Warfarin Without Raising Bleeding Risk in Study
Johnson & Johnson and Bayer AG’s blood thinner Xarelto prevented strokes in patients with an erratic heartbeat better than standard therapy with warfarin in a study, without raising the risk of bleeding.
Patients taking Xarelto once a day were 21 percent less likely to suffer a stroke or embolism than those on warfarin, a 56-year-old medicine first used as rat poison, researchers said at the American Heart Association’s annual meeting in Chicago. A second analysis of the data using more stringent methods found Xarelto was equal to warfarin. Bleeding risk, a feared side effect of therapy, was similar.
The study positions Xarelto to take at least a third of the market for warfarin replacements, following the approval of a rival drug called Pradaxa in the U.S. last month, Savant Ahmed, a London-based analyst for the Royal Bank of Scotland, said in an e-mail. Bayer has estimated the market for new blood-thinners including Xarelto could surpass $14 billion in annual sales.
“If you look at the data, Pradaxa and Xarelto are just a lot better than warfarin,” Leslie Iltgen, a Frankfurt-based analyst at Bankhaus Lampe KG, said in a telephone interview. The market is big enough to support both drugs, said Lampe, who recommends buying Bayer shares.
Xarelto may generate combined peak sales for Bayer and Johnson & Johnson of $3.9 billion by 2020, according to estimates from Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. Their calculations assumed the Bayer drug would be about as effective as Boehringer Ingelheim GmbH’s Pradaxa.
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