Stock Market longer term...
We have felt for some time that the market will not peak until the public gets back in.
Historically, that has been the case and it remains the house bet.
Now that the market has moved from spy 104 to spy 122, we can better judge the future.
How has the move from the summer lows to the recent high affected investor attitudes?
In the short run it has brought about a dramatic shift from Aug 26 when there were 2 bears to 1 bull on the 6 mo market outlook to now 2 bulls for every bear.
But more importantly, what about the money?
We do not detect a sizable shift from the investing public in their willingness to part with cash and put it in the market.
The bear market [and recession, housing collapse, high unemployment] was so severe it really zinged investors psyche.
That fearful attitude was re-enforced by the Flash Crash in May.
Judging by how little movement there has been [on the part of the investing public in terms of attitudinal or actual shift into stocks] from the July low at 101 to the recent 122, it seems likely the market will ultimately break out above the Oct 2007 all time high of spy 156 and move well beyond that level.
While almost no one believes it will happen [a distinct contrarian positive in its own right], we believe the evidence points to that outcome as most likely.
In the meantime, nothing changes.
Listen to what the market is saying in real time and be highly attuned to contrarian analysis to guide decisions.
Blocking and tackling win the game. Cut losers and let winners run in accordance with your trading or investing time frame.
Discipline never goes out of style.
Opinions based on logic or facts are fine. [as long as one is willing to change them as new evidence comes along]
Avoid perma bias [and stubborn] like the plague if you are at all serious about wresting a living from markets.
Fabian
AI
Market Data 
Markets 
