Biotech Values

[dewophile]

re monetizing lovenox asset

to fully monetize the asset you would have to make the difficult assumption (closer to wild guess if you asked me) on probability of another generic entrant entering the market over a specified period of time. if NVS and MNTA don't see eye to eye on these probabilities, the cleanest way to monetize some of the asset is to sell 5% of the profit share and then reduce the royalty by a comparable or slightly greater amount (sales would be lower with another generic, but 5% of net sales is > 5% of profit so i don't think it would be much more than a 5% adjustment to royalty). this way that 5% can be valued as an ongoing stream in perpetuity and the proper multiple applied.

imo 5% should sell for 300M (300M earnings with no risk generic equates to value of asset of about 3B and they would be selling 5% of the 45% profit share or 1/9th of the asset)

if you take whatever up front money they get from a deal for M118, add 300M to the pie, that should cover their portion of development of the product and then some