Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[jdaasoc]

gurus were talking about buying bonds

If you believe that economy can hold 3+% growth rates, FED will have to raise rates as soon as the concerns of the ubiquitous pension underfunding issue, additional goodwill and intangible writeoffs by large caps like GE TYC etc. start to become non issues. I don't see that happening real soon but sometime in late 2003 possibly 2004. The wide card is earnings. The stronger the earnings are the more the DOW 5000 concerns can be forgotten and hedge funds fold up shop as writeoffs accelerate offset by better earnings.

Also, I see the fears of new money deciding seriously right now why they should buy the safe investment, bonds, at fairly these fairly low yields only to see declining bond valuations as rates rise as FED tries to slow economy that could easily overheat as it did in 99.

Please confirm your imbalance of trade fears as even I can see major declines of our tradition local manufacturing partners like Puerto Rico and Mexico. They have been exclusively replaced by Asian suppliers. On Friday, Ford announced reductions in cost of supplies over two years of 15%. Very soon, you will have the choice of buying a car made in Korea, Indonesia or even China with local parts or same car assembled in US.