Hello Freep...well you make some good points...i tend to follow the II data which pegs bulls at 43% bullish and 28% bearish the mid range of the past years range. Thus I find this indicator neutral here. The vix is still in the mid 30's here and historically is still at a very bullish level long term.
Bottom line is that we took out key resistance on the Naz at 1360 with room to 1425 here. The SP 500 is poised to take out 905 with the move alone in MSFT monday. My study of the Nikkei indicates that bear market rallies with high compression (of which I believe this is one given the heavy short interest/move off 50 vix/sentiment at that time, etc) are often straight up moves where the majority miss it waiting on some type of pullback. I find this move similar to the move off the 9/11/01 lows where stocks like QLGC ramped up from 17 to 56 in 2 months time. Also given the strong seasonality here I think that just adds to the positive flow to the markets at this time. I think many shorts are in a box here and will need to get exhausted before this move runs its course.
Please take a look at the yearly/daily charts on all of the indices...they all have that bullish look here setting up for a major advance with the 13 and 50 day MA's curling up under the price action.
My study of charts tonight shows many bullish flags setting up here as MSFT was and they are coiled and about to breakout near term imo....take a look at YHOO for example...very explosive setup.