HaHa, didn't realize there were so many smart people posting on investment boards.
Partially I got lucky, partially it was experience. Luck plays a big part at times.
The market started to bounce around 200-500 points a day, I knew this was bad, so I started to actively trade these mutual funds. The company complained to me that I can't do that, I needed to stay in for the long term, and they were going to limit the number of round trips I could do.
Earlier the so-called advisor that sold these funds (Waddell & Reed) was also my mothers advisor, in ~2006 his advice to her was to take a mortgage out on her house and invest the proceeds in their equity funds. Tax considerations and all that bunk. I thought that was nuts, and it scared me that a fiduciary advisor would suggest such a gamble to someone who is retired. So I stared to take a more active roll.
I got out for good and went to cash during 2007.
Once I got out, I never wanted to get back in because of the round trip limitation, and how fast the marekt was moving. Eventually in early 2009 I moved all the funds out of mutual funds (it was all cash, but still in funds).
So I started to buy with the cash in March of 2009. I did buy calls in Lehman brothers, didn't think they would let that one blow up. I bought calls because I wasn’t sure and wanted to limit my risk. It did scare me that so many companies were blowing up, but I also recalled reading stories about those that bought during the great depression, and how well they did if they bought at the bottom.
If I was really smart, I would have bought all leaps on stocks, if I had done that I wouldn’t bother with the market at all, I figured out I would be up 20 million even by July. I kick myself for being too timid.
I tell the longer story to explain how it happened to unfold, and partially it was luck.
I had a suggestion to some, post your picks on motley fool caps service , and then we can compare performance over time.
I think it actually provideds good discpline and for sure it leaves a real record. My name is BITSof1980 on that service. Right now I Rank: 3226 out of 71947, I haven't been using it for the last 4-5 months, but we could start a whole new account. It would be fun. And many of my picks are still running, all the old ones are still there in archive.
Since a lot of the gains were from me buying in 2009, it wouldnt be possible to beat me now. But I would start a whole new account to make it fair. I think you are a pretty good stock picker, so why not? Are you game, and others want to do that? I once asked vinny, he didn't care to try, but I think it actually helps one to think about the longer term since you can't trade in and out sooner than every 7 days.
AI
