Biotech Values

[tinkershaw]

Dew,

I'm not sure if your math bears out on that. Although I suck at complex statistics. Each individual count is not correlated with any of the other individual counts, so 40% for one count and 5% for another count cannot necessarily be added up or combined to increase the chances of success. They each stand independently. There are 4 shots on goal, each with an individual chance of winning that is uncorrelated with any of the other shots on goal. If you take their average you get:

40/100, 30/100, 10/100, 5/100 = 85/400 = 21.25% chance of prevailing in total.

However, that is not very meaningful as there would be a 40% chance of prevailing on the first shot no matter the smaller percentage on the remaining shots, and a 30% chance on the second shot no matter the higher percentage of the first shot and lower percentage on the next shot, and so on. Having more shots on goal does not necessarily increase the odds of succeeding in total, although it does give another shot on goal.

Somneone who actually understood statistics better than I, please let me know if my math is wrong on this or not.

Thanks.

Tinker