Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Logothetis]

street.com on TIBX

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/tech/billsnyder/10211052.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_it...

Tibco Software (TIBX:Nasdaq - commentary - research) is being pounded for a second straight day, the apparent victim of investor skittishness brought on by fears the company might not hit its first-quarter targets.

In recent trading, shares were off 89 cents, or 9%, to $8.87, on volume that was four times heavier than normal. Tuesday's selloff follows a drop of 8% on Monday and a series of down days that have knocked 25% off the stock's value since Feb. 18.


Although the rumors have been circulating for about 10 days, the stock got a nasty shove Monday when Bear Stearns analyst John DiFucci trimmed his quarterly estimates. "Tibco's February quarter appears more back-end loaded than the previous three periods, with meaningful business still to be closed in the last few days," he wrote in a note published Monday.

DiFucci cut his estimates to a pro forma EPS of 7 cents on revenue of $113.3 million, down from the consensus estimate of an 8-cent per share profit on sales of $119 million.

In December, the company said it expects to earn a pro forma profit of 8 cents a share on sales ranging from $116 million to $120 million in the first quarter.

It's worth noting that because customers often hold out for bargains, a last minute scramble to close deals at the very end of the quarter has become the norm for many software companies.

Although he cut his estimates, DiFucci said he views Tibco "as an attractive long-term investment in the software sector." (Bear Sterns has an investment banking relationship with Tibco.)

Tibco sells software used to integrate diverse applications on corporate networks.