Citigroup Inc (C)

[Dumbarse]

To clear things up, I wasn't addressing your trading strategy, I was addressing this quote (which you agreed with):

I gotta believe that this tests 4.50 sometime in the near future. This is starting to look like an "All the bad news is out" situation. With the market down this AM, hopefully we don't give up all of yesterday's gain.

First, we have to define "near future". By sometime in 2011? Sure. I don't think anyone expects this stock to be hovering around $4.00 once the government is out.

By the end of the year? Probably not. If the overall market continues to rise (e.g. DJI approaches 12,000), maybe Citigroup establishes a new channel. So, some of the things I'm about to say may have to be tweaked over the next couple of weeks or so.

But, history has shown us (and we have months of this data now), that as long as the government is actively selling it's shares, Citigroup will trade between $3.60's and $4.00. It may reach a bit below/above those numbers, but that's basically been the channel.

It's when the government is in it's blackout period, that's when we see this thing run to $4.30. Well, I think the blackout period is over, so I'm going to say that we are going to approach $4.00 again (it's $4.07 as I type). Thus, my prediction from this morning rang true - we will approach $4.00 (and yes, we will lose all the gains from yesterday).

I think I've said this before, but I'm using this Message Board as a place to put my thoughts about Citigroup, just to see how accurate they are. It's one thing to have a random thought (about a stock) run through your mind. It's another thing to put that thought to the public, so you can really see how accurate you are.

Check my posting history, I've been pretty accurate. :) Which is good for me (dollar-wise), and good for anyone else reading.