Biotech Values

[mcbio]

Re: ARRY-380 vs. T-DM1

An oncologist that I talk to sees ARRY-380 having to (potentially) compete with Roche's T-DM1. The oncologist thinks T-DMI is a superior drug.

I don't know how one can even make that comparison given the very limited data to date we have on ARRY-380. Is he basing that statement on the limited clinical data so far for ARRY-380 or is that just speculation based on mode of action or something? If it's the former, I'd say I think we need to see more data from ARRY-380 before jumping to any conclusions. Either way, I think you would probably agree that the market isn't factoring in much expectations at all for ARRY-380 right now given ARRY's market cap. If the market is wrong, and the drug progresses successfully in the clinic, I think there's nice upside for the stock given the very large market opportunity that an oral Herceptin would present. Also, let's keep in mind that point that ARRY-380 is oral whereas T-DM1 is not and the prior PR from ARRY (#msg-55080837) seemed to imply that ARRY-380 may also have some safety advantages due to MoA (selective for HER2 and does not inhibit EGFR; not sure if T-DM1 is the same in that regard). And again, if we're talking efficacy, I think it's too early to draw any comparisons between the two drugs. Finally, it sounds like ARRY-380 has an additive effective when combined with Herceptin so I imagine that ARRY-380 may also show additive benefit when combined with T-DM1; i.e., perhaps the drugs would not be mutually exclusive but could in fact be combined. Way too early to be talking that, but just throwing that out there for discussion.