Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

exwannabe, linhdtu, RockRat et al: The matter I’m talking about is Teva’s disinformation campaign to convince gullible investors and sell-side analysts that Teva has US patent protection on Copaxone until Sep 2015 rather than May 2014 (#msg-54677508, #msg-54653868). I find this consequential for two reasons:

• It’s dishonest. IMO, such dishonesty increases the likelihood that Teva is also being dishonest to the investment community on its being “close to approval” for generic Lovenox.

• It reeks of desperation. I interpret Teva’s disinformation on the patent expiration as an implicit admission that NVS/MNTA are likely to get FDA approval for generic Copaxone despite Teva’s protestations that it can’t be done. (If Teva were as confident as they claim to be that Copaxone can’t be replicated, the Copaxone patent-expiration date would be moot.)

Inasmuch as Copaxone is a blockbuster drug and MNTA will earn 50% of the net profits on a NVS/MNTA generic, the difference between a potential generic launch in May 2014 and a potential launch in Sep 2015 is highly consequential for MNTA investors. Much more consequential than the minutia of the Lovenox launch that posters on this board have been obsessing about.