Zeev....
My wee one had a basketball game this afternoon so I had to leave before the market closed and just now got back home (out of town game.) It looks like I missed a good bit of action in both directions, and tomorrow (as well as the rest of the week) could be interesting.
The reason I felt ok leaving this afternoon with the market going straight up was the look and feel of this rally - to da moon, baby. Not withstanding the fact that I remain convinced that this has been a rally begun and periodically goosed by the PPT at every hint of profit taking, the straight up nature of the rally (artificial) and the fact that it has been goosed the hardest whenever the bad news hit (which has been often), leads me to believe that the odds are now higher, not less, that we hit new lows before the year is out and probably sooner than most folks think.
Fundamentals continue to deteriorate, and rather rapidly. Earnings season to date has gone exactly as I predicted, with earnings ok in most instances (of course that is pro-forma fairy tales vs sharply lowered expectations) but revenue misses have been common and guidance miserable. As for George's contention that there will be a peaceful resolution with Iraq, I seriously doubt it, and think it will take close to capitulation by Saddam for war to be averted. Japan is toast, and things there will only get worse, while South America is close to coming unglued. Europe is sinking into recession even faster than we are, led in part by the same weakening US consumer that is finally hitting us here at home. The rollout of the JPM rumors this afternoon are but a harbinger of pending doom for the bank, and perhaps a prelude for a Fed orchestrated takeover by Bank One with the good ole US taxpayer taking all the bad stuff - shades of Chase Manhattan and Mannie Hannie.
The only positive I see at the moment is that they are continuing to hold gold down and the dollar up, which means the PPT has not given up yet. One thing that really bothers me is wondering what it is that they are so worried about at the moment - I suspect it is JPM, and perhaps some others in trouble with derivatives and especially the Argentina default situation.
All just my opinion, though.
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